Recent events and trends in world affairs have focused attention upon the issue of inter-state economic conflict and possible national security implications in the decade ahead. In this context, the Office of Naval Research (ONR) took the initiative within the Department of Defense (DOD) to sponsor a workshop which would bring together key individuals from Government, the academic community, and the private research sector for purposes of exploring and discussing the national security...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Minckler, Rex D., Rebh, Richard G., OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH ARLINGTON VA, *NATIONAL...
This thesis describes long-range forecasting models that were developed for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa to cope with the problem of projecting important economic, political, military, and social variables over a five to twenty year range. On the basis of imperfect data that is available for these regions, this study examines the innovations introduced to handle the unstable situations found in developing areas of the world. Limited to the Middle East region, this effort...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Alvarez,Everett , Jr, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF, *POLITICAL SCIENCE,...
The changing definition of international crisis is noted and related to the three major series of crises in the twentieth century. The rapid adaptation and institutionalization of American foreign and defense policy machinery to fit the crisis conditions of the Cold War era are traced in order to indicate the nature of the dislocation that began to occur in a 'transition period' after 1964. The need to restructure and reinstitutionalize concepts and practices in the American foreign affairs...
Topics: DTIC Archive, McClelland, Charles A, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES DEPT OF...
In this volume the primary intent is to uncover the objective functional relationship between import and export dependencies as they affect the reliability of supply in the past and the future. Until recently, under the aegis of American hegemony, and due to the role the oil multinationals played, both oil exporting and oil importing countries exhibited a sufficiently high degree of dependence on the trade in oil to bring about a symmetry in their reciprocal conditions. The manipulation of oil...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Arad, Uzi B, Smernoff, Barry J, HUDSON INST CROTON-ON-HUDSON NY, *INTERNATIONAL...
The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide the basis for the improvement of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This volume provides a step by step procedure that analysts can use to generate forecasts of the long-range environment. The document is based on and should be used in conjuction with CACI's A General Handbook for Long-Range Environmental Forecasting, Interim Technical Report No. 2 (February 1973).
Topics: DTIC Archive, Franco, G Robert, Leavitt, Michael R, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *ECONOMETRICS,...
The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide a basis for the improvements of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This volume provides the technical discussion of the model that was developed to forecast values of five central environmental descriptors for the European environment of the 1985-1995 period. The descriptor variables considered were international conflict, international alignment, national power base, internal...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Franco, G R, Weil, Herman M, Greenberg, Aaron, German, Larry, Hartwick, Douglas, CACI...
The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide a basis for the improvement of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This voulme provides a summary of the technical work that is presented in the second volume of the Report. The document summarizes the methodology that was developed to forecast values of 5 central environmental descriptors for the European environment of the 1985-19995 period. The descriptors considered were:...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Franco, G R, Weil, Herman M, Greenberg, Aaron, German, Larry, Hartwick, Douglas, CACI...
This report summarizes research into and application of decision analytic techniques by Decisions and Designs, Incorporated (DDI) during the period October 1, 1975 through June 30, 1975. As such, this report provides a summary of those activities in terms of the following categories: -- assessment and forecasting, evaluation of alternative solutions, policy formulation and implementation, value-of-information analysis, utility analysis in treaty negotiations, basic decision analysis research,...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Kelly, III, Clinton W, Peterson, Cameron R, DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA,...
Guidelines for generating forecasts and simulations are also presented in this Technical Appendix to enable Department of Defense personnel to become better acquainted with the approaches to generating meaningful, interesting, alternative futures for comparing the strategic implications of contrasting developments. Finally, the Appendix contains several annexes that identify the nations used in the study, the years and sources of all data, the model parameters, the computer forecasting program...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
The primary goal of the current project is to enhance long-range forecasting capability in the defense community by developing and introducing new methodologies that add a simulation capability. A second, but no less important, purpose is to provide the defense community with high quality forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa in support of the JLRSS. In this connection, JCS/J-5 has operational current models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa that can be...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
This report describes the development of long-range forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. Volume 1, the Executive Summary, summarizes the work on all tasks in non-technical language. Volume II, Research Findings, describes the long-range forecasts and simulations and their implications for strategic policy and planning. Volume III, the Technical Appendix, describes in detail all phases of the study. These include the identification of key concepts and their...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
The goals of the project have been the development of forecasting techniques to the point where the impact of alternative U.S. foreign policies toward specific countries can be assessed in alternative strategic environments. As a way of achieving this objective, the Project is developing computer simulations of several Middle-East oil producing nations. In doing this, assumptions about relations between U.S. policies and policy actions and country and region specific indicators of stability are...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Thorson, Stuart J, OHIO STATE UNIV RESEARCH FOUNDATION COLUMBUS, *FORECASTING,...
The project seeks to develop forecasting techniques to the point where the impact of alternative U.S. foreign policies toward specific countries can be assessed in alternative strategic environments. As a way of achieving this objective, the Project is developing computer simulations of several Middle-East oil producing nations. In doing this, assumptions about relations between U.S. policies, policy actions, a country, and a region are being expressed in a mathematical language. Results from...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Thorson, Stuart J, OHIO STATE UNIV RESEARCH FOUNDATION COLUMBUS, *FORECASTING,...
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The YF-16 and F-16 developmental wind tunnel test program was reviewed and all force data pertinent to the design of forebody and nose strakes extracted. A complete set of these data is presented without analysis.
Topics: AIR CARGO, FOREIGN POLICY, MILITARY OPERATIONS, POLITICS, SOCIAL FACTORS, FUELS, POLICIES, PUBLIC...