Recent events and trends in world affairs have focused attention upon the issue of inter-state economic conflict and possible national security implications in the decade ahead. In this context, the Office of Naval Research (ONR) took the initiative within the Department of Defense (DOD) to sponsor a workshop which would bring together key individuals from Government, the academic community, and the private research sector for purposes of exploring and discussing the national security...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Minckler, Rex D., Rebh, Richard G., OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH ARLINGTON VA, *NATIONAL...
The major focus of U.S. strategic planning has long been on general nuclear war, conceived of as a rapid and massive exchange of most of the U.S. and Soviet Union strategic arsenals. Lesser forms of strategic conflict have received attention from academic strategic theorists, but until recently were not considered seriously in U.S. defense planning. With President Nixon's oft quoted question in 1970 of whether or not the President should have more than one option to deal with nuclear attack on...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Strauch,Ralph E, RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF, *FOREIGN POLICY, *STRATEGIC WARFARE,...
After a brief recapitulation of the concepts and methodology for arriving at calculations of the extent of military commitment of the countries of the world, tables of the indicators of the extent of commitment by the United States and the United Kingdom for 1968 and for 1974 are presented. Discussion of the data and further analyses of groupings of commitments are given.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Martin, Wayne R., UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL...
The report sets forth the case in behalf of more complex monitoring and analysis approaches to international threat phenomena, given the circumstance that the international system has become more complex in recent years. Traditional capabilities/intent analyses are discussed. A research design is outlined in preview of the multi-file procedure to be demonstrated later on as new approach to threat recognition. Sample data files are shown to illustrate the substance of the new approach. (Author)
Topics: DTIC Archive, McClelland, Charles A, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL...
Guidelines for generating forecasts and simulations are also presented in this Technical Appendix to enable Department of Defense personnel to become better acquainted with the approaches to generating meaningful, interesting, alternative futures for comparing the strategic implications of contrasting developments. Finally, the Appendix contains several annexes that identify the nations used in the study, the years and sources of all data, the model parameters, the computer forecasting program...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
The primary goal of the current project is to enhance long-range forecasting capability in the defense community by developing and introducing new methodologies that add a simulation capability. A second, but no less important, purpose is to provide the defense community with high quality forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa in support of the JLRSS. In this connection, JCS/J-5 has operational current models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa that can be...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
This report describes the development of long-range forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. Volume 1, the Executive Summary, summarizes the work on all tasks in non-technical language. Volume II, Research Findings, describes the long-range forecasts and simulations and their implications for strategic policy and planning. Volume III, the Technical Appendix, describes in detail all phases of the study. These include the identification of key concepts and their...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
This study examines the escalation rates and intensity levels of US/ USSR post-WW II confrontations in relation to the number of strategic nuclear weapons available to these nations to determine if a relationship exists. That is, have strategic nuclear weapons effected the rate of escalation or peak level of intensity of the post-WW II US/USSR confrontations. The study concludes that, while the role of strategic nuclear weapons has been insignificant in effecting either the intensity level or...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Helms, II, Robert F, ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
This thesis investigates the utility of conventional military intervention by Western powers in achieving their short-term foreign policy aims. Through a survey of the literature of political-military coordination, case studies of contingency force interventions, and comparative analysis of the interventions, factors fundamental to successful contingency operations are developed.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Clark, Wesley K., ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS, *FOREIGN...