Military power continues to be perceived as fundamental to the international bargaining process. Hence, concerns over the shifts in the strategic balance are germane to the question of whether this nation will continue to accomplish, with a modicum of success, its foreign policy goals. The four essays reflect the complex nature of assessing the strategic balance and relative importance of the forces which shape that balance. The first paper underscores the role conventional forces play in the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Fair,Stanley D, Kennedy,Robert, Scott,John F, Wilborn,Thomas L, ARMY WAR COLL...
Recent events and trends in world affairs have focused attention upon the issue of inter-state economic conflict and possible national security implications in the decade ahead. In this context, the Office of Naval Research (ONR) took the initiative within the Department of Defense (DOD) to sponsor a workshop which would bring together key individuals from Government, the academic community, and the private research sector for purposes of exploring and discussing the national security...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Minckler, Rex D., Rebh, Richard G., OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH ARLINGTON VA, *NATIONAL...
The objective of this essay is to review and analyze the relations of the East African nation of Kenya with its bordering states. The issue of whether the external and internal forces which influence Kenya and its bordering states force an 'osmosis' effect which will make it necessary for these nations to adopt domestic and foreign policies on a left-right political spectrum which are similar to one another is raised. The analysis of the relations of Kenya's bordering nations covers the major...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Hirtzel,Richard D, ARMY WAR COLL CARLISLE BARRACKS PA, *INTERNATIONAL POLITICS,...
This thesis describes long-range forecasting models that were developed for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa to cope with the problem of projecting important economic, political, military, and social variables over a five to twenty year range. On the basis of imperfect data that is available for these regions, this study examines the innovations introduced to handle the unstable situations found in developing areas of the world. Limited to the Middle East region, this effort...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Alvarez,Everett , Jr, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF, *POLITICAL SCIENCE,...
Following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, the American government refused to grant de jure recognition to the Soviet regime. American courts likewise refuse to acknowledge the legal existence of the Soviet Union in matters concerning Russian property in the United States. In the 1933 Litvinov Assignment, when President Roosevelt granted conditional recognition to Moscow, the Soviets assigned its rights to Russian property in the U.S. to the American government. The assignment, however, proved to...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Millett,Stephen M, AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO, *FOREIGN POLICY,...
The US-Israeli 'special relationship' has drawn the United States into a closer and more direct involvement in the Middle East. This memorandum analyzes the basis for the US-Israeli connection and various plausible options for the form and structure of future US-Israeli relations. The author indicates that, in the absence of a comprehensive peace settlement, formalization of the relationship is unlikely in order to retain US flexibility with both Arabs and Israelis. However, ultimately, some...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Chambers,Howard L, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
Possible responses to the question (whether asked for innocent or ideological reasons) 'Why does the United States prop up dictators' is discussed. Dividing all 160 states of the world into 4 categories (Communist totalitarians, non-Communist totalitarians, democracies, and the others--mostly authoritarian), the discussion analyzes why the United States does not support Communist dictators, why it does support democracies, and why, and on what basis, it interacts with non-Communist dictators...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Wermuth,Anthony L, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
The 1974 Cyprus crisis and the chain of subsequent events have led to a new low in US-Turkish relations, created a most serious threat to the viability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) southeastern flank, and reduced US capability to pursue its interests in the Middle East. These events have occurred at a time when other developments in the region are making sound US-Turkish relations and continued firm commitment of Turkey to her NATO and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO)...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Trinnaman,James E, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA, *UNITED...
The future international order in Southeast Asia will be heavily influenced by the ambitions and capabilities of the three major Communist actors--the USSR, DRV, and PRC. To a great extent relations between the ASEAN states and the Communists state will be a function of the interrelationships among the Communist states themselves. The Sino-Soviet conflict defines the orientations of the USSR and PRC towards Southeast Asis including Indochina. Both powers accuse the other of seeking hegemony....
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weatherbee,Donald E, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
Taking into account the impact of domestic, inter-Arab, Arab-Israeli, superpower, and other international economic, political, military, and social considerations, this research identifies the areas of convergence of and divergence between United States interests and policies and those of Egypt, of Iraq, and of Syria. It also suggests techniques and policy alternatives that might enable the United States to capitalize on cooperative potential and minimize possible conflicts with these...
Topics: DTIC Archive, McLaurin,R D, Mughisuddin,Mohammed, AMERICAN INSTITUTES FOR RESEARCH WASHINGTON D C...
Contents: Honorable Eugene V. McAuliffe US-USSR Competition and Evolving Balances of Power; The US-USSR Strategic Equation -- Strategic and major substrategic forces; The Third World and US-Soviet Relationships; The People's Republic of China and the US-Soviet Relationships; Economic Interdependence and the US-Soviet Relationships; and International Technology Transfers.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Stovall,Don O, NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIV WASHINGTON D C, *NATIONAL SECURITY,...
Employment of military force in times of crisis is increasingly questionable. Therefore, other means of international suasion increase in importance. One form is civilian-based defense (CBD) which is lauded by proponents as 'tough' and 'pragmatic.' Democratic and totalitarian societies each have their strengths and weaknesses in dealing with it. Totalitarians may go so far as genocide against which nonviolent resistance is largely helpless. They are little bound traditional concepts of morality...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Deutsch,Harold C, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
This study is drawn from a report submitted in March 1975 to the Dept. of Defense, Bureau of International Security Affairs. It considers questions concerning the perceptions the People's Republic of China hold about SALT and the strategic military balance between the Soviet Union and the United States. It also examines how sensitive these Chinese perceptions are to real or potential shifts in the Soviet-American strategic balance.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Pillsbury,Michael, RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF, *ARMS CONTROL, *INTERNATIONAL...
THE OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH WERE TO EXAMINE THE MANNER IN WHICH THE DEFENSE PROCUREMENT PROCESS HAS BEEN MODIFIED OVER A PERIOD OF TIME BY THE PROVISION OF UNIQUE POLICIES AND PROCEDURES TO ACCOMMODATE FMS procurements, to explore the evolution of the FMS program and to ascertain the procurement problems associated therewith, and to assess the implications of the evolving FMS program with respect to defense procurement policies and procedures. The inquiry was limited to FMS of major...
Topics: DTIC Archive, McChesney,Jack Lester, AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO, *CONTRACT...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Mendershausen, Horst, RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, *POLITICAL SCIENCE, *WESTERN EUROPE,...
This report constitutes the final technical report of year two of the International Behavior Analysis (IBA) Project. The Project's basic goal is to provide a means for producing comparative, empirical generalizations about how, when, and why nations are likely to act, react, and interact. Three distinct kinds of behavior are being analyzed. First, the identification of sources of national action is a central objective. Nations act externally in response to domestic and/or foreign stimuli. Three...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Hopple, Gerald W., MARYLAND UNIV COLLEGE PARK DEPT OF...
A new orientation to pre-crisis study is developed drawing upon concepts from international systems analysis, empirical research on international crises and insights from cybernetics about monitoring change in a system. Conceptions of threat are divided into threat as behavior and threat as perception. Threat as behavior is determined by monitoring international event/ interactions. Threat as perception is determined by the cognitive appraisals of international affairs analysts. Analyzing...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Beal, Richard S., UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL...
An analysis of threat situations in the domestic and international system is presented. The basis for analyzing domestic threats as a system phenomenon is explained. Data are reported for the severity, development speed and spread of domestic and international threats over a four month period.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Simon, Jeffrey, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS...
This publication has been produced as a part of the overall research program undertaken by the Department of the Army to improve the capability of the United States Army to conduct PSYOP/information programs under a variety of circumstances in many different environments. The major focus of attention has been placed on psychological operations of military relevance, with special emphasis on the types of activities that may confront U.S. personnel in the two decades ahead. In content, the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, De McLaurin, Ronald, Rosenthal, Carl F., Skillings, Sarah A., AMERICAN INSTITUTES FOR...
This research project is designed to examine the empirical evidence available to date concerning the reasons for the defeat of the Communist Army of Greece in 1949. This work is the result of this author's endeavor to understand and evaluate why the Communist Insurgency failed in Greece. This failure is specifically addressed herein to determine whether the Communist defeat was the result of military action or political turmoil within the Communist Party of Greece. In order to answer this...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Haase, Thomas A, ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
Contents: Beyond the Open Door -- U.S. Policy and Access to Global Resources (Rept. no. HI-2148-DP); Averting Economic Warfare in Raw Materials -- U.S. Agriculture as a Blue Chip; Changing American Foreign Policy in the Middle East -- An Analysis (Rept. no. HI-2195/2-P); Iraq as a Soviet Proxy on the Persian Gulf in the Next Decade (Rept. no. HI-2168-P); and Energy in the Third World (Rept. no. HI-2094-P).
Topics: DTIC Archive, Arad, Uzi B, Smernoff, Barry J, HUDSON INST CROTON-ON-HUDSON NY, *INTERNATIONAL...
In this volume the primary intent is to uncover the objective functional relationship between import and export dependencies as they affect the reliability of supply in the past and the future. Until recently, under the aegis of American hegemony, and due to the role the oil multinationals played, both oil exporting and oil importing countries exhibited a sufficiently high degree of dependence on the trade in oil to bring about a symmetry in their reciprocal conditions. The manipulation of oil...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Arad, Uzi B, Smernoff, Barry J, HUDSON INST CROTON-ON-HUDSON NY, *INTERNATIONAL...
This report sets down the results of research on some of the significant problems relating to energy and national security. The emphasis taken by this study goes beyond the more obvious first-order issues, previously analyzed. It deals with less obvious but increasingly important problems, and including: (1) The relationship of the security of oil supplies to prevailing market conditions in the past and in the future; (2) The more general question of access to non-oil global resources and U.S....
Topics: DTIC Archive, Arad, Uzi B, Smernoff, Barry J, HUDSON INST CROTON-ON-HUDSON NY, *INTERNATIONAL...
This report analyzes the Soviet concept of the correlation of forces. It attempts from review of historical and contemporary Soviet literature (1) to illuminate the various factors subsumed under the concept, (2) to indicate the extent to which the concept represents a systematic approach to foreign policy, and (3) to assess the Soviet leadership's current evaluation of the international balance between the United States and the USSR.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Deane, Michael J, STANFORD RESEARCH INST ARLINGTON VA STRATEGIC STUDIES CENTER,...
This report endeavors to explore one ot those many elusive variables in the complicated confrontation environment of the Middle East. That variable includes consideration of the inherent strength and political influence of the Palestinian Resistance Movement, and why and how since the first al Fatah raid of 1965 Syria has proven to be, if not the most consistent, as least the most practically helpful of those Arab regimes who have at one time or another chosen to patronize the movement. In...
Topics: DTIC Archive, L'Heureux, Richard J, AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH,...
This study examines the role of selected Soviet social science research institutes in the administration of Soviet foreign policy. The history, organization and fields of research of a number of Soviet institutes with greatest foreign policy impact are documented, along with biographical and career patterns of key institute personnel and other important figures in Soviet social science. In addition, this study describes Soviet social science research methods and approaches employed in current...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Soll, Richard S, Zuehlke, Jr , Arthur A, Foster, Richard B, STANFORD RESEARCH INST...
This author argues that it is not possible to extract the maximum politico-military benefit from the nation's expenditure on its military forces unless explicit consideration is given to the perceptual effects of their configuration, structure and modes of deployment. It is further argued that it is well within the scope of the relevant disciplines and methods to evaluate such perceptual effects in a manner sufficiently unambiguous to allow the resulting data to be introduced in the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Luttwak, Edward N, ESSEX CORP ALEXANDRIA VA, *DECISION MAKING, *DEPARTMENT OF...
The thesis analyzes the impact of the October 1973 Middle East War on super-power Middle East policy. The analysis is conducted within the context of the overall Middle East crisis, both before and after the 1973 War. Consideration is given to the historical roles of the US and USSR in the Middle East to highlight the changes in those roles as a result of the War. New patterns of super-power involvement in the area are described and the potential effects of these patterns on future Middle East...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Rypka, Allan E, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA, *MIDDLE EAST, *POLITICAL...
The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide the basis for the improvement of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This volume provides a step by step procedure that analysts can use to generate forecasts of the long-range environment. The document is based on and should be used in conjuction with CACI's A General Handbook for Long-Range Environmental Forecasting, Interim Technical Report No. 2 (February 1973).
Topics: DTIC Archive, Franco, G Robert, Leavitt, Michael R, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *ECONOMETRICS,...
The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide a basis for the improvements of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This volume provides the technical discussion of the model that was developed to forecast values of five central environmental descriptors for the European environment of the 1985-1995 period. The descriptor variables considered were international conflict, international alignment, national power base, internal...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Franco, G R, Weil, Herman M, Greenberg, Aaron, German, Larry, Hartwick, Douglas, CACI...
The overall purpose of this Interim Technical Report is to provide a basis for the improvement of long-range environmental forecasting through the use of quantitative methods. This voulme provides a summary of the technical work that is presented in the second volume of the Report. The document summarizes the methodology that was developed to forecast values of 5 central environmental descriptors for the European environment of the 1985-19995 period. The descriptors considered were:...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Franco, G R, Weil, Herman M, Greenberg, Aaron, German, Larry, Hartwick, Douglas, CACI...
A primary preoccupation of Soviet foreign policy since World War II has been the control of Eastern Europe. Eastern Europe has been important to the USSR for several reasons: the military security factor, the springboard factor, the communist internationalist factor, and the ideological security factor. Soviet policy toward Eastern Europe has differed importantly in the Khrushchev and the Brezhnev eras. After 1956, following Stalin's attempt to achieve total control of the area, Khrushchev...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Brown, J F, RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, *FOREIGN POLICY, *INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,...
The report sets forth the case in behalf of more complex monitoring and analysis approaches to international threat phenomena, given the circumstance that the international system has become more complex in recent years. Traditional capabilities/intent analyses are discussed. A research design is outlined in preview of the multi-file procedure to be demonstrated later on as new approach to threat recognition. Sample data files are shown to illustrate the substance of the new approach. (Author)
Topics: DTIC Archive, McClelland, Charles A, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL...
Guidelines for generating forecasts and simulations are also presented in this Technical Appendix to enable Department of Defense personnel to become better acquainted with the approaches to generating meaningful, interesting, alternative futures for comparing the strategic implications of contrasting developments. Finally, the Appendix contains several annexes that identify the nations used in the study, the years and sources of all data, the model parameters, the computer forecasting program...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
The primary goal of the current project is to enhance long-range forecasting capability in the defense community by developing and introducing new methodologies that add a simulation capability. A second, but no less important, purpose is to provide the defense community with high quality forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa in support of the JLRSS. In this connection, JCS/J-5 has operational current models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa that can be...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
This report describes the development of long-range forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. Volume 1, the Executive Summary, summarizes the work on all tasks in non-technical language. Volume II, Research Findings, describes the long-range forecasts and simulations and their implications for strategic policy and planning. Volume III, the Technical Appendix, describes in detail all phases of the study. These include the identification of key concepts and their...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
The objective of the International Behavior Analysis (IBA) Project is to construct and Implement an analytical framework capable of providing insight into the actions and interactions of certain states in certain situations. The Project's emphasis is thus comparative and in this connection will construct and implement a typology of nations and a typology of international events.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Andriole, Stephen J, MARYLAND UNIV COLLEGE PARK DEPT OF...
This volume presents the preliminary findings of the pilot study; a summary of input papers on Soviet foreign policy formulation and coordination in Europe; an analysis of the Soviet perception of detente; and a working hypothesis on how the USSR formulates and coordinates its foreign policy.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Pipes, Richard, Foster, Richard B, Dornan, Jr, James E, STANFORD RESEARCH INST...
A review of events leading to the Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia, focusing on factors which influenced the Soviet government's decision to use military force to resolve a growing political problem. The role of intelligence and security forces in reporting events taking place within Czechoslovakia is described as are the parts played by the Soviet military leadership and the various political positions and pressures exercised by the USSR's Warsaw Pact allies. Finally the decision itself...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Guth, Robert M, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE NEWPORT RI, *MILITARY OPERATIONS, ATTACK,...
This thesis identifies a force, inherent in the national security decision-making process, which contributed to the American involvement in Vietnam. Termed 'policy precedents,' this force may be outside the control of the unwary decision maker and can result in irrational international behavior on the part of the nation. Once a policy or program becomes totally enmeshed within the governmental organization it becomes such a firm commitment that deviation from within becomes virtually...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Walton, Joseph A, ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
This study examines the escalation rates and intensity levels of US/ USSR post-WW II confrontations in relation to the number of strategic nuclear weapons available to these nations to determine if a relationship exists. That is, have strategic nuclear weapons effected the rate of escalation or peak level of intensity of the post-WW II US/USSR confrontations. The study concludes that, while the role of strategic nuclear weapons has been insignificant in effecting either the intensity level or...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Helms, II, Robert F, ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
The study reflects observations made during a nine-day trip to Europe in June 1975. It involved attendance at a conference on contemporary elite attitudes toward the Atlantic Alliance and conversations with knowledgeable Americans and Europeans in London, Bonn, Brussels, and SHAPE. The major concern is the presumed impact of events in Southeast Asia on the US world position, detente, the American national poise, Middle East affairs, US interests and policies in Europe, confidence in the United...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Deutsch, Harold C, ARMY WAR COLLEGE CARLISLE BARRACKS PA STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE,...
This thesis investigates the utility of conventional military intervention by Western powers in achieving their short-term foreign policy aims. Through a survey of the literature of political-military coordination, case studies of contingency force interventions, and comparative analysis of the interventions, factors fundamental to successful contingency operations are developed.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Clark, Wesley K., ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS, *FOREIGN...
Contents: The Rise and Fall of 'Counterinsurgency'; Revolutionary Conflict and U.S. Interests; U.S. Military Experience with Revolutionary Conflict; U.S. Assistance--Imperatives and Constraints; Possibilities for Institutional Reform.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Heymann, H., Jr., Whitson, W. W., RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, *POLICIES,...