Simulations can serve to evaluate alternative system designs and proposed retrofits, and performance of subsystems and elements organic to crisis management systems. Doctrinal behaviors of the system during crises are described along with possible deviations. A structure of simulations is developed along with four perspectives or classes of system factors. Methods for evaluation are described along with criteria applicable to each perspective. Criteria other than direct measures of time are...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Havron, M Dean, Blanton, Robert L, HUMAN SCIENCES RESEARCH INC MCLEAN VA, *CRISIS...
The IADIS CELDA 2012 Conference intention was to address the main issues concerned with evolving learning processes and supporting pedagogies and applications in the digital age. There had been advances in both cognitive psychology and computing that have affected the educational arena. The convergence of these two disciplines is increasing at a fast pace and affecting academia and professional practice in many ways. Paradigms such as just-in-time learning, constructivism, student-centered...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Academic Achievement, Academic Persistence, Academic Support Services, Access to...
The author wrote a piece called "What Our Children Should Learn about 9/11." In that piece, the author made just four simple points. These include: (1) children should know the facts; (2) once they had a grounding in the facts, the children should not abjure moral judgment; (3) children should learn to make both analytical and moral distinctions; and (4) children must learn to live with uncertainty, and specifically to understand the difference between living in fear and living with...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Foreign Countries, World History, Foreign Policy, Arabs, Muslims, Expectation,...
Following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, the American government refused to grant de jure recognition to the Soviet regime. American courts likewise refuse to acknowledge the legal existence of the Soviet Union in matters concerning Russian property in the United States. In the 1933 Litvinov Assignment, when President Roosevelt granted conditional recognition to Moscow, the Soviets assigned its rights to Russian property in the U.S. to the American government. The assignment, however, proved to...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Millett,Stephen M, AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO, *FOREIGN POLICY,...
This report of a study at the University of Maryland describes an international, interactive, and interdisciplinary project for first- and second-year students, which combines a large lecture format with small-group, seminar-type sessions organized around a computer-assisted simulation model, the International Communication and Negotiation Simulation (ICONS). Students learned about negotiation strategies through case studies and materials on cross-cultural communication. Strategies were tested...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Active Learning, Case Studies, Computer Assisted Instruction, Computer Simulation,...
Procedures for the operation of the Political-Military Exercise (PME) are detailed in this handbook as a means of involving political science students in the actual dynamics of international policy-making decisions through the PME game experience. Two basic designs for operating the simulation exercise are presented with a discussion of the format alternatives, facilities, materials, and administrative techniques required for each design. The first design, a 1- or 2-day concentrated game,...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Decision Making, Foreign Policy, Game Theory, Games, International Relations,...
Focusing on the controversy which surrounded Thomas Jefferson and the Embargo of 1807, this social studies unit examines the numerous factors which affect presidential policy-making and leadership. The unit presents newspaper accounts of the boarding of the American frigate "Chesapeake" by the English in 1807 and enumerates the factors that influenced Jefferson's subsequent response to the situation--(1) Jefferson's temperament, his political philosophy and feelings about the...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Curriculum Guides, Decision Making, Democratic Values, Foreign Policy, Leadership,...
The study concludes that the demonstrative and discrete use of the armed forces for political objectives should not be an option which decision-makers turn to frequently, nor quickly, to secure political objectives abroad, except under very special circumstances. Over the longer term these uses of the armed forces were not an effective foreign policy instrument.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Blechman,Barry M, Kaplan,Stephen S, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION WASHINGTON D C, *MILITARY...
In particular circumstances, demonstrative uses of the armed forces can sometimes be an effective way--at least in the short term--of securing U.S. objectives and preventing foreign situations inimical to U.S. interests from worsening more rapidly than more fundamental policies can be formulated. Thus, at times, and although decisionmakers should view these options with some caution, the demonstrative use of the armed forces for political objectives is a useful step to shore up a situation...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Blechman, Barry M, Kaplan, Stephen S, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION WASHINGTON DC, *FOREIGN...
The major focus of U.S. strategic planning has long been on general nuclear war, conceived of as a rapid and massive exchange of most of the U.S. and Soviet Union strategic arsenals. Lesser forms of strategic conflict have received attention from academic strategic theorists, but until recently were not considered seriously in U.S. defense planning. With President Nixon's oft quoted question in 1970 of whether or not the President should have more than one option to deal with nuclear attack on...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Strauch,Ralph E, RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF, *FOREIGN POLICY, *STRATEGIC WARFARE,...
The 1971 regional AAASS symposium for which the papers presented here were originally prepared asked the authors to address themselves to three questions with regard to the comparative study of Communist foreign policies: (1) why should we compare; (2) what should we compare; and (3) how should we compare. The papers before us are long on why arguments, short on 'what' recommendations, and tell us almost nothing about 'how' to do it. That is perfectly consistent with the difficulty of the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Horelick,Arnold L, RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF, *FOREIGN POLICY, *COMMUNIST...
This paper presents the final report of the discussion at the second SRI/SSC-IMEMO/IUSAC Joint Symposium on U.S. /USSR Strategic and Economic Issues held in Moscow on 24-27 September 1974. The first two sections cover the background and objectives of the symposium and the ground rules for dialogue that were established. A summary of discussion is then presented followed by a description of agreements reached on the continuation of the dialogue to include joint research projects and symposia....
Topics: DTIC Archive, Foster, Robert B., Ellsworth, Robert, Lukasik, Stephen J., Hyland, William C.,...
This report constitutes the final technical report of year two of the International Behavior Analysis (IBA) Project. The Project's basic goal is to provide a means for producing comparative, empirical generalizations about how, when, and why nations are likely to act, react, and interact. Three distinct kinds of behavior are being analyzed. First, the identification of sources of national action is a central objective. Nations act externally in response to domestic and/or foreign stimuli. Three...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Hopple, Gerald W., MARYLAND UNIV COLLEGE PARK DEPT OF...
A new orientation to pre-crisis study is developed drawing upon concepts from international systems analysis, empirical research on international crises and insights from cybernetics about monitoring change in a system. Conceptions of threat are divided into threat as behavior and threat as perception. Threat as behavior is determined by monitoring international event/ interactions. Threat as perception is determined by the cognitive appraisals of international affairs analysts. Analyzing...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Beal, Richard S., UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL...
This paper investigates the need for an Army liaison staff to Congress for strategic matters. The historical and descriptive approaches are used to evaluate pertinent documentary evidence. The Congressional process, as it pertains to military policy, is illustrated with two different models. In recent years Congress has displayed a strong desire to curb the powers of the President and to reassert Congressional prerogatives. However, in attempting to reassert control, Congress may be ignoring...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Patrick, Dennis M., ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
This author argues that it is not possible to extract the maximum politico-military benefit from the nation's expenditure on its military forces unless explicit consideration is given to the perceptual effects of their configuration, structure and modes of deployment. It is further argued that it is well within the scope of the relevant disciplines and methods to evaluate such perceptual effects in a manner sufficiently unambiguous to allow the resulting data to be introduced in the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Luttwak, Edward N, ESSEX CORP ALEXANDRIA VA, *DECISION MAKING, *DEPARTMENT OF...
The purposes of this research were to determine if crisis management tasks in the Department of Defense are handled by ad hoc groups, and to then analyze the question of whether the decision-making performance of ad hoc groups is inferior to the performance of permanent organizations. The research depended on a search of the social science literature, analysis of case studies of past crisis decision-making, and briefings by DOD officials and others familiar with crisis management. In Task 1, it...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Shapiro, Howard B, Cummings, Patricia L, HUMAN SCIENCES RESEARCH INC MCLEAN VA,...
A comprehensive, social scientific framework for analyzing foreign policy behavior has been constructed and refined. Interrelationships between certain factors (variables) have been indicated within the contexts of international source and decision-making behavior and, moreover, within the contexts of different situations and nations. Each factor is being transformed into an actual variable. Data are assembled for the five major sets of factors which are important for both source analysis and...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Hopple, Gerald W, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Andriole, Stephen J, MARYLAND UNIV COLLEGE...
This report summarizes research into and application of decision analytic techniques by Decisions and Designs, Incorporated (DDI) during the period October 1, 1975 through June 30, 1975. As such, this report provides a summary of those activities in terms of the following categories: -- assessment and forecasting, evaluation of alternative solutions, policy formulation and implementation, value-of-information analysis, utility analysis in treaty negotiations, basic decision analysis research,...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Kelly, III, Clinton W, Peterson, Cameron R, DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA,...
Guidelines for generating forecasts and simulations are also presented in this Technical Appendix to enable Department of Defense personnel to become better acquainted with the approaches to generating meaningful, interesting, alternative futures for comparing the strategic implications of contrasting developments. Finally, the Appendix contains several annexes that identify the nations used in the study, the years and sources of all data, the model parameters, the computer forecasting program...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
The primary goal of the current project is to enhance long-range forecasting capability in the defense community by developing and introducing new methodologies that add a simulation capability. A second, but no less important, purpose is to provide the defense community with high quality forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa in support of the JLRSS. In this connection, JCS/J-5 has operational current models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa that can be...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
This report describes the development of long-range forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. Volume 1, the Executive Summary, summarizes the work on all tasks in non-technical language. Volume II, Research Findings, describes the long-range forecasts and simulations and their implications for strategic policy and planning. Volume III, the Technical Appendix, describes in detail all phases of the study. These include the identification of key concepts and their...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
The objective of the International Behavior Analysis (IBA) Project is to construct and Implement an analytical framework capable of providing insight into the actions and interactions of certain states in certain situations. The Project's emphasis is thus comparative and in this connection will construct and implement a typology of nations and a typology of international events.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Andriole, Stephen J, MARYLAND UNIV COLLEGE PARK DEPT OF...
A review of events leading to the Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia, focusing on factors which influenced the Soviet government's decision to use military force to resolve a growing political problem. The role of intelligence and security forces in reporting events taking place within Czechoslovakia is described as are the parts played by the Soviet military leadership and the various political positions and pressures exercised by the USSR's Warsaw Pact allies. Finally the decision itself...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Guth, Robert M, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE NEWPORT RI, *MILITARY OPERATIONS, ATTACK,...
This thesis addresses the problem of the concept of national will. Present concepts are held to be inadequate because they arbitrarily separate national will from the political decision-making process and because they are psychologically unsound. As a result the concepts are of limited value in understanding the way in which national will is expressed in the United States. An hypothesis: 'United States national will is the collective intent of the group empowered to decide policy on a given...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Begtrup, Robert O., ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
This thesis identifies a force, inherent in the national security decision-making process, which contributed to the American involvement in Vietnam. Termed 'policy precedents,' this force may be outside the control of the unwary decision maker and can result in irrational international behavior on the part of the nation. Once a policy or program becomes totally enmeshed within the governmental organization it becomes such a firm commitment that deviation from within becomes virtually...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Walton, Joseph A, ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
This thesis investigates the utility of conventional military intervention by Western powers in achieving their short-term foreign policy aims. Through a survey of the literature of political-military coordination, case studies of contingency force interventions, and comparative analysis of the interventions, factors fundamental to successful contingency operations are developed.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Clark, Wesley K., ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS, *FOREIGN...
Contents: The Rise and Fall of 'Counterinsurgency'; Revolutionary Conflict and U.S. Interests; U.S. Military Experience with Revolutionary Conflict; U.S. Assistance--Imperatives and Constraints; Possibilities for Institutional Reform.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Heymann, H., Jr., Whitson, W. W., RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, *POLICIES,...
The report summarizes the two phases of a study designed to assess the possible contributions of psychological and sociological literature to improving the management of foreign policy crises. In Phase I, after a systematic search of the literature, the research findings of over 100 studies were synthesized into 81 propositions that relate to the influence of individual and group-level factors on the effective performance of decision-making tasks in crisis management. In Phase II the research...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Shapiro, Howard B, Gilbert, Marcia A, HUMAN SCIENCES RESEARCH INC MCLEAN VA,...
The report summarizes the research activities of the International Behavior Analysis (IBA) Project for the period August 1, 1974 to March 1, 1975. An analytical framework for the study of international behavior is constructed. It is comprised of the factors associated with international action and reaction. The factors themselves are classified as either internal (domestic) or external (foreign), and facilitate the conduct of source and (decision- making) process analysis.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Andriole, Stephen J, MARYLAND UNIV COLLEGE PARK DEPT OF...
A simulation designed for an introductory college-level international politics and comparative foreign policy course is described. Regional Crisis requires student decision-maker diplomats, grouped in teams, to respond to a Middle Eastern crisis that has substantial potential for escalation. In response to an initial crisis scenario, student teams representing various Middle Eastern countries suggest policy decisions based on the expected costs, risks, and gains that may be expected from the...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Conflict Resolution, Decision Making, Foreign Policy, Higher Education, International...
The ATS-6 Educational Satellite Communications Demonstration-Alaska (ESCD), was viewed as a way to give isolated population groups greater voice in their educational future, by bypassing bureaucratic levels and allowing the local people to have a direct say in the school curriculum and programs that were shown via satellite. This study focused on the programs on the ATS-6 satellite and evaluated the effectiveness of the programs in terms of the objectives stated for the project. In addition,...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Communications Satellites, Community Control, Community Involvement, Conflict...
The document presents a report of a conference to stimulate study, research, and education in the field of foreign relations. The report contains summaries of small group discussions of peace and security, economic order, development, resource/population balance, the environment, and human rights. It is presented in six sections. Section I summarizes discussion of non-proliferation strategy for the late 1970s. One major proposal was to create multinational nuclear power centers. Section II...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Civil Liberties, Conference Reports, Conflict Resolution, Decision Making Skills,...
One of a series of units designed to acquaint secondary school students with business issues, this packet focuses on the decisions facing American companies doing business in South Africa. Teacher and student materials are provided in separate sections. The teacher's guide presents an overview, objectives, five detailed lesson plans, suggested follow-up activities, answer keys, handouts for a student simulation, a review of relevant media resources, and background readings. The student...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Business, Business Responsibility, Controversial Issues (Course Content), Decision...
A "world model" is constructed where precedent-searching is one of the primary driving mechanisms. The simulation assumes that nations in the system are utility maximizers but that they have relatively primitive decision mechanisms and that they are strongly influenced by their previous short-term successful behavior and the short-term success of other states in the system. This model of foreign policy decision-making has been heavily influenced by recent artificial intelligence...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Decision Making, Economics, Foreign Policy, Global Approach, Higher Education,...
This ERIC Digest discusses issues relating to teaching about U.S. foreign policy in the changing international environment following the end of the Cold War era and the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The document treats: (1) the need and rationale for teaching and learning about current foreign policy issues; (2) main themes in foreign policy education in the post-Cold War era; (3) balance, inquiry, and decision making in the classroom; and (4) current classroom materials. The U.S. public...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Curriculum Development, Decision Making, Elementary Secondary Education, Foreign...