This paper proposes that a nation's major national interests do not change abruptly, but instead are relatively fixed and are dictated to a great extent by international political, economic and military realities. The dangers of apparent abandonment, or failure to recognize the importance, of a nation's long-term vital interests are pointed out, and historical examples discussed. Characteristic weaknesses of US foreign policy are elucidated and some corrective measures are suggested for the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, King,Alwyn H, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA, *FOREIGN...
The GATS is a multilateral, legally enforceable agreement among members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) that regulates international trade services. Rules regulating internationally traded educational services, which include various types of exchange programs, are part of the agreement. Among the 42 member countries that have made commitments in educational services, 25 have included commitments for at least four of the five education subsectors: primary, secondary, higher, adult, and...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Adult Education, Business, Elementary Secondary Education, Federal Government,...
Following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, the American government refused to grant de jure recognition to the Soviet regime. American courts likewise refuse to acknowledge the legal existence of the Soviet Union in matters concerning Russian property in the United States. In the 1933 Litvinov Assignment, when President Roosevelt granted conditional recognition to Moscow, the Soviets assigned its rights to Russian property in the U.S. to the American government. The assignment, however, proved to...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Millett,Stephen M, AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO, *FOREIGN POLICY,...
The US-Israeli 'special relationship' has drawn the United States into a closer and more direct involvement in the Middle East. This memorandum analyzes the basis for the US-Israeli connection and various plausible options for the form and structure of future US-Israeli relations. The author indicates that, in the absence of a comprehensive peace settlement, formalization of the relationship is unlikely in order to retain US flexibility with both Arabs and Israelis. However, ultimately, some...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Chambers,Howard L, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
Recent arms control negotiations have emphasized constraints on nuclear armaments and forces and, when they have dealt with conventional armaments, have tended to focus on quantitative limitations. With rapid advances in technology, increased ability to pay for modern weapons in areas such as the Middle East, and increased availability of modern weapons for export, several conventional arms competitions have taken on distinct qualitative dimensions as well as quantitative ones. The US Arms...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Gessert,Robert A, Cover,William W, Bieber,George R, McClary,Michael V, GENERAL...
This study is an investigation of the desirability and feasibility of placing qualitative constraints on conventional arms competitions by means of negotiated arms control agreements. Using an inductive and empirical approach, the study develops a conceptual structure for determining whether US arms control policy should pursue such constraints in particular situations. Past experience in arms control and the principal issues involved are surveyed with attention to qualitative aspects, and the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Gessert,Robert A, Cover,William W, GENERAL RESEARCH CORP MCLEAN VA OPERATIONS...
The 1974 Cyprus crisis and the chain of subsequent events have led to a new low in US-Turkish relations, created a most serious threat to the viability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) southeastern flank, and reduced US capability to pursue its interests in the Middle East. These events have occurred at a time when other developments in the region are making sound US-Turkish relations and continued firm commitment of Turkey to her NATO and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO)...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Trinnaman,James E, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA, *UNITED...
The future international order in Southeast Asia will be heavily influenced by the ambitions and capabilities of the three major Communist actors--the USSR, DRV, and PRC. To a great extent relations between the ASEAN states and the Communists state will be a function of the interrelationships among the Communist states themselves. The Sino-Soviet conflict defines the orientations of the USSR and PRC towards Southeast Asis including Indochina. Both powers accuse the other of seeking hegemony....
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weatherbee,Donald E, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
The evolution of US Strategic policy has involved as succession of transitory periods from the founding of the Republic to the present. The most profound change, fro virtual isolation to total international involvement, occurred between, 1865 and 1918. This memorandum analyzes the factors which influenced America's shift from neutrality through unilateralism into multinational alliances including the impact of economics and technology, the character of American society and politics, and the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Agnew,James B, Cooling,Benjamin F, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE...
This paper presents the final report of the discussion at the second SRI/SSC-IMEMO/IUSAC Joint Symposium on U.S. /USSR Strategic and Economic Issues held in Moscow on 24-27 September 1974. The first two sections cover the background and objectives of the symposium and the ground rules for dialogue that were established. A summary of discussion is then presented followed by a description of agreements reached on the continuation of the dialogue to include joint research projects and symposia....
Topics: DTIC Archive, Foster, Robert B., Ellsworth, Robert, Lukasik, Stephen J., Hyland, William C.,...
This research project is designed to examine the empirical evidence available to date concerning the reasons for the defeat of the Communist Army of Greece in 1949. This work is the result of this author's endeavor to understand and evaluate why the Communist Insurgency failed in Greece. This failure is specifically addressed herein to determine whether the Communist defeat was the result of military action or political turmoil within the Communist Party of Greece. In order to answer this...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Haase, Thomas A, ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
A primary preoccupation of Soviet foreign policy since World War II has been the control of Eastern Europe. Eastern Europe has been important to the USSR for several reasons: the military security factor, the springboard factor, the communist internationalist factor, and the ideological security factor. Soviet policy toward Eastern Europe has differed importantly in the Khrushchev and the Brezhnev eras. After 1956, following Stalin's attempt to achieve total control of the area, Khrushchev...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Brown, J F, RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, *FOREIGN POLICY, *INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS,...
This report summarizes research into and application of decision analytic techniques by Decisions and Designs, Incorporated (DDI) during the period October 1, 1975 through June 30, 1975. As such, this report provides a summary of those activities in terms of the following categories: -- assessment and forecasting, evaluation of alternative solutions, policy formulation and implementation, value-of-information analysis, utility analysis in treaty negotiations, basic decision analysis research,...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Kelly, III, Clinton W, Peterson, Cameron R, DECISIONS AND DESIGNS INC MCLEAN VA,...
The report sets forth the case in behalf of more complex monitoring and analysis approaches to international threat phenomena, given the circumstance that the international system has become more complex in recent years. Traditional capabilities/intent analyses are discussed. A research design is outlined in preview of the multi-file procedure to be demonstrated later on as new approach to threat recognition. Sample data files are shown to illustrate the substance of the new approach. (Author)
Topics: DTIC Archive, McClelland, Charles A, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL...
Guidelines for generating forecasts and simulations are also presented in this Technical Appendix to enable Department of Defense personnel to become better acquainted with the approaches to generating meaningful, interesting, alternative futures for comparing the strategic implications of contrasting developments. Finally, the Appendix contains several annexes that identify the nations used in the study, the years and sources of all data, the model parameters, the computer forecasting program...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
The primary goal of the current project is to enhance long-range forecasting capability in the defense community by developing and introducing new methodologies that add a simulation capability. A second, but no less important, purpose is to provide the defense community with high quality forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa in support of the JLRSS. In this connection, JCS/J-5 has operational current models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa that can be...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
This report describes the development of long-range forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. Volume 1, the Executive Summary, summarizes the work on all tasks in non-technical language. Volume II, Research Findings, describes the long-range forecasts and simulations and their implications for strategic policy and planning. Volume III, the Technical Appendix, describes in detail all phases of the study. These include the identification of key concepts and their...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
The objective of the International Behavior Analysis (IBA) Project is to construct and Implement an analytical framework capable of providing insight into the actions and interactions of certain states in certain situations. The Project's emphasis is thus comparative and in this connection will construct and implement a typology of nations and a typology of international events.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Andriole, Stephen J, MARYLAND UNIV COLLEGE PARK DEPT OF...
A review of events leading to the Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia, focusing on factors which influenced the Soviet government's decision to use military force to resolve a growing political problem. The role of intelligence and security forces in reporting events taking place within Czechoslovakia is described as are the parts played by the Soviet military leadership and the various political positions and pressures exercised by the USSR's Warsaw Pact allies. Finally the decision itself...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Guth, Robert M, NAVAL WAR COLLEGE NEWPORT RI, *MILITARY OPERATIONS, ATTACK,...
The study reflects observations made during a nine-day trip to Europe in June 1975. It involved attendance at a conference on contemporary elite attitudes toward the Atlantic Alliance and conversations with knowledgeable Americans and Europeans in London, Bonn, Brussels, and SHAPE. The major concern is the presumed impact of events in Southeast Asia on the US world position, detente, the American national poise, Middle East affairs, US interests and policies in Europe, confidence in the United...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Deutsch, Harold C, ARMY WAR COLLEGE CARLISLE BARRACKS PA STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE,...
The report discusses issues relating to multilateral disarmament in the context of the Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly to be convened in 1978. Intended as a forum for the exchange of ideas of government leaders from the United States and other nations about the international peace-keeping role of the United Nations, the Conference ordered discussion topics so that they would parallel the agenda proposed for the United Nations Special Session. The four-part agenda is as...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Conference Reports, Conflict Resolution, Disarmament, Foreign Countries, Foreign...
The purpose of the essay is to stimulate action toward disarmament, defined as arms reductions to the lowest level possible without making internal law enforcement impossible. Intended as a guide for peace activists, the booklet identifies 13 issues that hold promise for leading toward a disarmed world: banning nuclear tests, tests of new missiles, proliferation of nuclear weapons, and incendiary and chemical weapons; limiting strategic arms, the use of nuclear weapons, international arms...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Activism, Citizen Participation, Conflict, Conflict Resolution, Disarmament, Foreign...
The booklet, designed to explore the issues of international justice in the context of the Gospel, reviews relations between the United States and Panama. It includes background materials and a study guide for parish leaders and other educators. The central question pertaining to the Panama Canal concerns the rights of the United States according to the 1903 treaty. This treaty states that the United States can exercise "in perpetuity" power and authority over the ten-mile strip of...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Adult Education, Catholics, Christianity, Church Responsibility, Conferences,...
Six presentations, an introduction, and a summary discussion are included in this publication, which focuses on the various complex factors involved in the negotiation of arms control agreements with the Soviet Union. Titles of the six presentations are: (1) Critical Issues in the United States-Soviet Relationship; (2) Basic Elements of Strategic Theory: Military Relations in a Nuclear World; (3) United States Defense Capability; (4) A Closer Look at Soviet Capabilities; (5) Strengthening...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Civil Defense, Conflict, Cooperation, Diplomatic History, Disarmament, Foreign...
The conference considered a broad range of issues regarding nuclear nonproliferation and U.S. policy objectives for the nonproliferation regime both in the near term and long term. Major areas receiving particular attention were developments affecting the context of the nonproliferation debate; the present status of the nonproliferation regime; threats to the future of nonproliferation; the 1985 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference; and U.S. objectives regarding the implementation...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Disarmament, Foreign Policy, Futures (of Society), International Relations, Nuclear...
The Soviet Union (USSR) is a different place from what it was two years ago. The essential nature of these differences is, however, not obvious and the picture remains mixed. Recent developments involving political prisoners, freedom to travel and emigrate, broadcast jamming, and Czechoslovak relations seem to indicate that the Soviet society is at a turning point. It will be apparent whether Soviet society will turn in a positive direction only when predictions become reality, when promises...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Civil Liberties, Diplomatic History, Foreign Countries, Foreign Policy, Freedom of...
The goal of the Stanley Foundation is to encourage study, research, and discussion of timely international issues in such a way as to promote understanding of and tolerance for their complexity and to contribute to a secure peace with freedom and justice. Presented are four conference reports with a common characteristic. In each case, the United States has been executing policies which have been moderately successful but which are based on broad assumptions that may no longer be valid. In some...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Developing Nations, Economic Development, Foreign Countries, Foreign Policy, Higher...
This program guide assists in discussions of critical social and political issues by providing a framework for considering which conditions warrant a use of military force. The guide examines the question from two different but related angles: military force and those reasons for war most commonly offered. The document includes the following sections: (1) "Are There Reasonable Grounds for War?"--A Framework for Discussion; (2) A Summary of Major Discussion Points; (3) Part 1, Ethical...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Adult Education, Discussion Groups, Ethics, Foreign Policy, International Relations,...
This brief issues booklet provides basic information about the emerging democracy in the Philippines, as of 1989. The topics covered include the following: (1) "All in the Family"; (2) "The American Legacy"; (3) "An Enduring Presence"; (4) "Revolution: The Overthrow of President Marcos"; and (5) "Democracy Restored: Cory Aquino Victorious." A list of discussion questions and a 15-item annotated reading list conclude the booklet. (EH)
Topics: ERIC Archive, Colonialism, Conflict, Diplomatic History, Foreign Countries, Foreign Policy, Global...
This brief issues booklet provides basic information about the arms control issue in Europe, as of 1988. The table of contents includes the following: (1) "Trying Again"; (2) "Prelude to Arms Control"; (3) "The First Attempts: MBFR (Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions) and CSCE (Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe); (4) "CAFE (Conventional Armed Forces in Europe): The Political and Military Environment"; (5) "The Future of Conventional Arms...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Adult Education, Armed Forces, Conflict, Diplomatic History, Disarmament, Foreign...