This paper proposes that a nation's major national interests do not change abruptly, but instead are relatively fixed and are dictated to a great extent by international political, economic and military realities. The dangers of apparent abandonment, or failure to recognize the importance, of a nation's long-term vital interests are pointed out, and historical examples discussed. Characteristic weaknesses of US foreign policy are elucidated and some corrective measures are suggested for the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, King,Alwyn H, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA, *FOREIGN...
This paper analyzes the impact of nuclear armaments on US national and military policy since World War II. The immediate post-World War II years are reviewed with the conclusion that the threat of the atomic bomb was of little value for specific application during this period of US nuclear monopoly. The era of US superiority during the 1950's is assessed, including the nuclear threat during the Korean conflict, the concept of massive retaliation, and the 1956 Suez crisis. Evidence supporting...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Roberge,Ronald A, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
Military power continues to be perceived as fundamental to the international bargaining process. Hence, concerns over the shifts in the strategic balance are germane to the question of whether this nation will continue to accomplish, with a modicum of success, its foreign policy goals. The four essays reflect the complex nature of assessing the strategic balance and relative importance of the forces which shape that balance. The first paper underscores the role conventional forces play in the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Fair,Stanley D, Kennedy,Robert, Scott,John F, Wilborn,Thomas L, ARMY WAR COLL...
Simulations can serve to evaluate alternative system designs and proposed retrofits, and performance of subsystems and elements organic to crisis management systems. Doctrinal behaviors of the system during crises are described along with possible deviations. A structure of simulations is developed along with four perspectives or classes of system factors. Methods for evaluation are described along with criteria applicable to each perspective. Criteria other than direct measures of time are...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Havron, M Dean, Blanton, Robert L, HUMAN SCIENCES RESEARCH INC MCLEAN VA, *CRISIS...
Recent events and trends in world affairs have focused attention upon the issue of inter-state economic conflict and possible national security implications in the decade ahead. In this context, the Office of Naval Research (ONR) took the initiative within the Department of Defense (DOD) to sponsor a workshop which would bring together key individuals from Government, the academic community, and the private research sector for purposes of exploring and discussing the national security...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Minckler, Rex D., Rebh, Richard G., OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH ARLINGTON VA, *NATIONAL...
Since 1966, the United States and Indonesia have developed a friendly and cooperative relationship based on a pagmatic appreciation of mutual interest. Although there are disturbing questions about future Indonesian internal stability, US interests are such that a continued American positive response to Indonesian security requirements, particularly in terms of military assistance, is desirable.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weatherbee,Donald E, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
Following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, the American government refused to grant de jure recognition to the Soviet regime. American courts likewise refuse to acknowledge the legal existence of the Soviet Union in matters concerning Russian property in the United States. In the 1933 Litvinov Assignment, when President Roosevelt granted conditional recognition to Moscow, the Soviets assigned its rights to Russian property in the U.S. to the American government. The assignment, however, proved to...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Millett,Stephen M, AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO, *FOREIGN POLICY,...
The paper examines arms transfer policies, patterns, and trends since World War I and determines their role as a function of international power and diplomacy. It determines the relationship between arms trade and overall trade patterns. Factors affecting US arms sales to other countries are explored, with focus on the relationship between arms sales and US security. The paper discusses the interrelationship of arms trade patterns and alliance arrangements, with attention given to the benefits,...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Hankee,William B, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
The memorandum discusses developments which have created the necessity to reevaluate the strategic importance of the South Atlantic. Soviet policy in Africa and Soviet capabilities in the South Atlantic may threaten long-range NATO and US interests in the area, but the results will have more immediate political than military importance. Several US policy options are considered. The conclusion is that the United States should not seek new, formal military alliances in the region; however,...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Roberts,Kenneth E, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
The US-Israeli 'special relationship' has drawn the United States into a closer and more direct involvement in the Middle East. This memorandum analyzes the basis for the US-Israeli connection and various plausible options for the form and structure of future US-Israeli relations. The author indicates that, in the absence of a comprehensive peace settlement, formalization of the relationship is unlikely in order to retain US flexibility with both Arabs and Israelis. However, ultimately, some...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Chambers,Howard L, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
Recent arms control negotiations have emphasized constraints on nuclear armaments and forces and, when they have dealt with conventional armaments, have tended to focus on quantitative limitations. With rapid advances in technology, increased ability to pay for modern weapons in areas such as the Middle East, and increased availability of modern weapons for export, several conventional arms competitions have taken on distinct qualitative dimensions as well as quantitative ones. The US Arms...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Gessert,Robert A, Cover,William W, Bieber,George R, McClary,Michael V, GENERAL...
This study is an investigation of the desirability and feasibility of placing qualitative constraints on conventional arms competitions by means of negotiated arms control agreements. Using an inductive and empirical approach, the study develops a conceptual structure for determining whether US arms control policy should pursue such constraints in particular situations. Past experience in arms control and the principal issues involved are surveyed with attention to qualitative aspects, and the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Gessert,Robert A, Cover,William W, GENERAL RESEARCH CORP MCLEAN VA OPERATIONS...
Possible responses to the question (whether asked for innocent or ideological reasons) 'Why does the United States prop up dictators' is discussed. Dividing all 160 states of the world into 4 categories (Communist totalitarians, non-Communist totalitarians, democracies, and the others--mostly authoritarian), the discussion analyzes why the United States does not support Communist dictators, why it does support democracies, and why, and on what basis, it interacts with non-Communist dictators...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Wermuth,Anthony L, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
The 1974 Cyprus crisis and the chain of subsequent events have led to a new low in US-Turkish relations, created a most serious threat to the viability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) southeastern flank, and reduced US capability to pursue its interests in the Middle East. These events have occurred at a time when other developments in the region are making sound US-Turkish relations and continued firm commitment of Turkey to her NATO and Central Treaty Organization (CENTO)...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Trinnaman,James E, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA, *UNITED...
Taking into account the impact of domestic, inter-Arab, Arab-Israeli, superpower, and other international economic, political, military, and social considerations, this research identifies the areas of convergence of and divergence between United States interests and policies and those of Egypt, of Iraq, and of Syria. It also suggests techniques and policy alternatives that might enable the United States to capitalize on cooperative potential and minimize possible conflicts with these...
Topics: DTIC Archive, McLaurin,R D, Mughisuddin,Mohammed, AMERICAN INSTITUTES FOR RESEARCH WASHINGTON D C...
Contents: Honorable Eugene V. McAuliffe US-USSR Competition and Evolving Balances of Power; The US-USSR Strategic Equation -- Strategic and major substrategic forces; The Third World and US-Soviet Relationships; The People's Republic of China and the US-Soviet Relationships; Economic Interdependence and the US-Soviet Relationships; and International Technology Transfers.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Stovall,Don O, NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIV WASHINGTON D C, *NATIONAL SECURITY,...
Employment of military force in times of crisis is increasingly questionable. Therefore, other means of international suasion increase in importance. One form is civilian-based defense (CBD) which is lauded by proponents as 'tough' and 'pragmatic.' Democratic and totalitarian societies each have their strengths and weaknesses in dealing with it. Totalitarians may go so far as genocide against which nonviolent resistance is largely helpless. They are little bound traditional concepts of morality...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Deutsch,Harold C, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA,...
This memorandum discusses current trends in socioeconomic and political change in Central America and the Caribbean as they relate to US interests in the region and to US national security policy. The conclusion is that the development and maintenance of viable nation-states that are favorably disposed to the United States are goals of fundamental importance, due to the area's proximity and because of the conviction that viable nation-states stand a better chance of maintaining their security....
Topics: DTIC Archive, Fischbach,Lee C, Marcella,Gabriel, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE...
The present paper examines Soviet-U.S. naval interaction and its influence on Soviet Naval development and is drawn from a larger study still in progress on the role of the interaction phenomenon in the area of strategy- foreign policy-military posture. The paper is set in a chronological framework of three distinct periods, selected more or less arbitrarily on the basis of broad changes in the political and strategic setting in which the postwar Soviet-U.S. relationship has evolved.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Wolfe, Thomas W., RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, *POLITICAL SCIENCE, *MILITARY STRATEGY,...
The major focus of U.S. strategic planning has long been on general nuclear war, conceived of as a rapid and massive exchange of most of the U.S. and Soviet Union strategic arsenals. Lesser forms of strategic conflict have received attention from academic strategic theorists, but until recently were not considered seriously in U.S. defense planning. With President Nixon's oft quoted question in 1970 of whether or not the President should have more than one option to deal with nuclear attack on...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Strauch,Ralph E, RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF, *FOREIGN POLICY, *STRATEGIC WARFARE,...
THE OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH WERE TO EXAMINE THE MANNER IN WHICH THE DEFENSE PROCUREMENT PROCESS HAS BEEN MODIFIED OVER A PERIOD OF TIME BY THE PROVISION OF UNIQUE POLICIES AND PROCEDURES TO ACCOMMODATE FMS procurements, to explore the evolution of the FMS program and to ascertain the procurement problems associated therewith, and to assess the implications of the evolving FMS program with respect to defense procurement policies and procedures. The inquiry was limited to FMS of major...
Topics: DTIC Archive, McChesney,Jack Lester, AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO, *CONTRACT...
The evolution of US Strategic policy has involved as succession of transitory periods from the founding of the Republic to the present. The most profound change, fro virtual isolation to total international involvement, occurred between, 1865 and 1918. This memorandum analyzes the factors which influenced America's shift from neutrality through unilateralism into multinational alliances including the impact of economics and technology, the character of American society and politics, and the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Agnew,James B, Cooling,Benjamin F, ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE...
This report constitutes the final technical report of year two of the International Behavior Analysis (IBA) Project. The Project's basic goal is to provide a means for producing comparative, empirical generalizations about how, when, and why nations are likely to act, react, and interact. Three distinct kinds of behavior are being analyzed. First, the identification of sources of national action is a central objective. Nations act externally in response to domestic and/or foreign stimuli. Three...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Hopple, Gerald W., MARYLAND UNIV COLLEGE PARK DEPT OF...
A new orientation to pre-crisis study is developed drawing upon concepts from international systems analysis, empirical research on international crises and insights from cybernetics about monitoring change in a system. Conceptions of threat are divided into threat as behavior and threat as perception. Threat as behavior is determined by monitoring international event/ interactions. Threat as perception is determined by the cognitive appraisals of international affairs analysts. Analyzing...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Beal, Richard S., UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL...
This publication has been produced as a part of the overall research program undertaken by the Department of the Army to improve the capability of the United States Army to conduct PSYOP/information programs under a variety of circumstances in many different environments. The major focus of attention has been placed on psychological operations of military relevance, with special emphasis on the types of activities that may confront U.S. personnel in the two decades ahead. In content, the...
Topics: DTIC Archive, De McLaurin, Ronald, Rosenthal, Carl F., Skillings, Sarah A., AMERICAN INSTITUTES FOR...
This paper investigates the need for an Army liaison staff to Congress for strategic matters. The historical and descriptive approaches are used to evaluate pertinent documentary evidence. The Congressional process, as it pertains to military policy, is illustrated with two different models. In recent years Congress has displayed a strong desire to curb the powers of the President and to reassert Congressional prerogatives. However, in attempting to reassert control, Congress may be ignoring...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Patrick, Dennis M., ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
Contents: Beyond the Open Door -- U.S. Policy and Access to Global Resources (Rept. no. HI-2148-DP); Averting Economic Warfare in Raw Materials -- U.S. Agriculture as a Blue Chip; Changing American Foreign Policy in the Middle East -- An Analysis (Rept. no. HI-2195/2-P); Iraq as a Soviet Proxy on the Persian Gulf in the Next Decade (Rept. no. HI-2168-P); and Energy in the Third World (Rept. no. HI-2094-P).
Topics: DTIC Archive, Arad, Uzi B, Smernoff, Barry J, HUDSON INST CROTON-ON-HUDSON NY, *INTERNATIONAL...
In this volume the primary intent is to uncover the objective functional relationship between import and export dependencies as they affect the reliability of supply in the past and the future. Until recently, under the aegis of American hegemony, and due to the role the oil multinationals played, both oil exporting and oil importing countries exhibited a sufficiently high degree of dependence on the trade in oil to bring about a symmetry in their reciprocal conditions. The manipulation of oil...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Arad, Uzi B, Smernoff, Barry J, HUDSON INST CROTON-ON-HUDSON NY, *INTERNATIONAL...
This report sets down the results of research on some of the significant problems relating to energy and national security. The emphasis taken by this study goes beyond the more obvious first-order issues, previously analyzed. It deals with less obvious but increasingly important problems, and including: (1) The relationship of the security of oil supplies to prevailing market conditions in the past and in the future; (2) The more general question of access to non-oil global resources and U.S....
Topics: DTIC Archive, Arad, Uzi B, Smernoff, Barry J, HUDSON INST CROTON-ON-HUDSON NY, *INTERNATIONAL...
This report analyzes the Soviet concept of the correlation of forces. It attempts from review of historical and contemporary Soviet literature (1) to illuminate the various factors subsumed under the concept, (2) to indicate the extent to which the concept represents a systematic approach to foreign policy, and (3) to assess the Soviet leadership's current evaluation of the international balance between the United States and the USSR.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Deane, Michael J, STANFORD RESEARCH INST ARLINGTON VA STRATEGIC STUDIES CENTER,...
See ADB025003 for abstract.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Pfaltzgraff, Jr , Robert L, Kemp, Geoffrey, INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS INC...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Pfaltzgraff, Jr , Robert L, Kemp, Geoffrey, INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS INC...
The thesis analyzes the impact of the October 1973 Middle East War on super-power Middle East policy. The analysis is conducted within the context of the overall Middle East crisis, both before and after the 1973 War. Consideration is given to the historical roles of the US and USSR in the Middle East to highlight the changes in those roles as a result of the War. New patterns of super-power involvement in the area are described and the potential effects of these patterns on future Middle East...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Rypka, Allan E, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA, *MIDDLE EAST, *POLITICAL...
The study derives doctrinal and operational lessons from the US experience with pacification in South Vietnam to guide US policymakers in providing technical assistance and advice in the future to a friendly government facing an internal security problem. Volume I presents a synthesis of the study's findings and Volume III opens with an account of the Malayan and Philippine insurgencies and the lessons learned there and then traces in detail the evolution of pacification plans and programs in...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Cooper, Chester L., Corson, Judith E., Legere, Laurence J., Lockwood, David E.,...
The paper discusses recent Soviet initiatives for agreement with the United States on naval arms control, and attempts to evaluate their significance in the context of the Soviet navy's increasingly active role in support of Soviet foreign policy.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Kelly, Anne M., Petersen, Charles, CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA, *NAVAL...
The study derives doctrinal and operational lessons from the US experience with pacification in South Vietnam to guide US policymakers in providing technical assistance and advice in the future to a friendly government facing an internal security problem. Volume I presents a synthesis of the study's findings and the major lessons learned. Based on those lessons, the volume concludes with some specific recommendations for courses of action by US policymakers. Volume II examines in considerable...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Cooper, Chester L., Corson, Judith E., Legere, Laurence J., Lockwood, David E.,...
Guidelines for generating forecasts and simulations are also presented in this Technical Appendix to enable Department of Defense personnel to become better acquainted with the approaches to generating meaningful, interesting, alternative futures for comparing the strategic implications of contrasting developments. Finally, the Appendix contains several annexes that identify the nations used in the study, the years and sources of all data, the model parameters, the computer forecasting program...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
The primary goal of the current project is to enhance long-range forecasting capability in the defense community by developing and introducing new methodologies that add a simulation capability. A second, but no less important, purpose is to provide the defense community with high quality forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa in support of the JLRSS. In this connection, JCS/J-5 has operational current models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa that can be...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
This report describes the development of long-range forecasting models for the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. Volume 1, the Executive Summary, summarizes the work on all tasks in non-technical language. Volume II, Research Findings, describes the long-range forecasts and simulations and their implications for strategic policy and planning. Volume III, the Technical Appendix, describes in detail all phases of the study. These include the identification of key concepts and their...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Weil, Herman M, McIlroy, John J, CACI INC-FEDERAL ARLINGTON VA, *COMPUTER...
This volume presents the preliminary findings of the pilot study; a summary of input papers on Soviet foreign policy formulation and coordination in Europe; an analysis of the Soviet perception of detente; and a working hypothesis on how the USSR formulates and coordinates its foreign policy.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Pipes, Richard, Foster, Richard B, Dornan, Jr, James E, STANFORD RESEARCH INST...
The study examines the ways, and the effectiveness with which, the United States and the Soviet Union have employed their armed forces, short of actual violence, during the period 1946-1975. The study further explains the interconnections between demonstrative displays of military force and the success or failure of foreign policy in the postwar period. The study analyzed 300 incidents since 1945 in which either the United States or the USSR has utilized its armed forces, without significant...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Blechman, Barry M, Kaplan, Stephen S, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION WASHINGTON DC, *FOREIGN...
This thesis identifies a force, inherent in the national security decision-making process, which contributed to the American involvement in Vietnam. Termed 'policy precedents,' this force may be outside the control of the unwary decision maker and can result in irrational international behavior on the part of the nation. Once a policy or program becomes totally enmeshed within the governmental organization it becomes such a firm commitment that deviation from within becomes virtually...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Walton, Joseph A, ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
This study examines the escalation rates and intensity levels of US/ USSR post-WW II confrontations in relation to the number of strategic nuclear weapons available to these nations to determine if a relationship exists. That is, have strategic nuclear weapons effected the rate of escalation or peak level of intensity of the post-WW II US/USSR confrontations. The study concludes that, while the role of strategic nuclear weapons has been insignificant in effecting either the intensity level or...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Helms, II, Robert F, ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLLEGE FORT LEAVENWORTH KS,...
The study reflects observations made during a nine-day trip to Europe in June 1975. It involved attendance at a conference on contemporary elite attitudes toward the Atlantic Alliance and conversations with knowledgeable Americans and Europeans in London, Bonn, Brussels, and SHAPE. The major concern is the presumed impact of events in Southeast Asia on the US world position, detente, the American national poise, Middle East affairs, US interests and policies in Europe, confidence in the United...
Topics: DTIC Archive, Deutsch, Harold C, ARMY WAR COLLEGE CARLISLE BARRACKS PA STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE,...
This thesis investigates the utility of conventional military intervention by Western powers in achieving their short-term foreign policy aims. Through a survey of the literature of political-military coordination, case studies of contingency force interventions, and comparative analysis of the interventions, factors fundamental to successful contingency operations are developed.
Topics: DTIC Archive, Clark, Wesley K., ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS, *FOREIGN...
Thailand's Isthmus of Kra connects the Malay Peninsula with southern Thailand and Burma. Sixty miles in width at its narrowest point, the Kra Isthmus, over time, has been proposed as a site for the location of a canal connecting the South China Sea with the Indian Ocean. The impact that a completed Kra Canal would have on U.S. Naval policy in the Indian Ocean, in support of specific national interests, was analyzed with respect to the advantages and costs that would result from U.S....
Topics: DTIC Archive, Graham, Alan S., NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA, *FOREIGN POLICY, *UNITED...
Forty years ago, George F. Kennan advanced the doctrine of containment against Soviet encroachment throughout the world. The Soviet Union has evolved from a Eurasian land power into a global superpower. In an effort to create an international environment congenial to domestic reforms, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev has sought greater tranquility along Soviet borders. He seeks to exploit latent anti-nuclear sentiment in Europe and to challenge the conceptual underpinnings of Western deterrence....
Topics: ERIC Archive, Diplomatic History, Disarmament, Foreign Countries, Foreign Policy, International...
This document is designed to teach students about foreign public opinion and its impact on U.S. foreign policy. As information and communication exchange among nations proliferates, it is important for citizens to understand foreign societies and for U.S. policies to be understood and accepted by other nations. The purpose of this document is to explain the role of the United States Information Agency, and to teach the importance of broadening dialogue between the people of the United States...
Topics: ERIC Archive, Citizenship Education, Civics, Foreign Countries, Foreign Policy, Instructional...